黄河“八七”分水方案的适应性评价与提升策略

Adaptability assessment and promotion strategy of the Yellow River Water Allocation Scheme

  • 摘要: 黄河"八七"分水方案是流域水资源管理的重要依据。颁布30余年来,黄河流域自然环境、经济社会等发生了显著变化,亟需科学认识分水方案对环境变化扰动的适应性。运用动力系统原理构建分水方案适应性的动力微分方程和综合评价模型,从敏感性、稳定性、抗力和恢复力4个方面建立包含20个指标的适应性评价指标体系,定量评价1999年以来分水方案的适应性,并采用HP(Hodrick-Prescott)滤波识别适应性变化趋势。结果表明:分水方案对环境变化的适应性良好,19年中63.2%的年份适应性值大于1;适应性先升后降,2005年达到峰值,之后逐渐降低,2014年起适应性值小于1,表现为不适应。分析影响分水方案适应性的主要因素,提出分水方案调整策略,为支撑流域水资源管理提供方向参考。

     

    Abstract: The Yellow River Water Allocation Scheme ("Scheme 1987") provides an important foundation for basin-scale water resources management. The Scheme 1987 has been in place for more than 30 years,during which time both the natural environment and the socioeconomics in the Yellow River basin have changed dramatically. Thus there is an urgent need to assess the adaptability of Scheme 1987 in changing environments. We have developed a dynamic differential equation and comprehensive evaluation model to assess water allocation scheme adaptability using power system principles. We have constructed an index system consisting of 20 metrics of sensibility,stability,resistance,and resilience and used our method to assess Scheme 1987 between 1999 and 2017. The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter has been used to reveal the adaptability trend. The results show that Scheme 1987 adapted well to the changing environment,with highly adaptable years accounting for more than 63.2% of the 19-year period. Adaptability increased early,peaking in 2005,and then decreased. The scheme began showing an inability to adapt since 2014. We have identified the major factors influencing the adaptability of Scheme 1987 and suggested some adjustments for basin-scale water resources management.

     

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