基于等可靠度法的变化环境下工程水文设计值估计方法

Estimation of design flood using equivalent reliability method under changing environment

  • 摘要: 气候变化及人类活动影响的加剧,改变了水文极值系列产生的平稳性条件,给现行水文频率分析计算方法带来挑战,亟需发展非平稳性条件下的水文频率分析理论与方法。讨论了等可靠度法的基本思想,拓宽了该方法在变化环境下工程水文设计方面的应用,以解决变化环境下工程水文设计值中的两类问题:①对于待建工程,依据非平稳性的水文极值系列,如何推求给定标准的设计值;②对于已建工程,如何协调/调整已建工程的洪水设计值,以适应变化环境对其产生的影响。以黄龙滩1956—2014年共59年的15日洪量系列为对象,对等可靠度法进行应用示例研究,并分析了参数估计不确定性对水文设计值的影响。结果表明,在非一致性条件下,给定设计标准下的水文设计值随着工程设计使用年限的变化而变化,且设计值估计的不确定性随着工程设计使用年限的增加而增大。

     

    Abstract: The intensified impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities has changed the stationary characteristics of the hydrological extreme series, thus posing a challenge on the Traditional Hydrological Frequency Analysis (THFA) method. Therefore, a new theory and approach is required for analyzing non-stationary hydrological frequency. In this paper, further discussions are conducted about the fundamental idea of Equivalent Reliability (ER) approach, and ER application for the design flood estimation under a changing environment has been expanded. The ER approach is expected to address two key issues: ① to estimate the design flood with a given design standard for a project yet to be constructed; ② to adjust the design flood for an already constructed project for its adaptation to the changing conditions. The 59 years of 15-day flood volume series from 1956 to 2014 is used to demonstrate the ER approach, and analysis is conducted for the impact of parameter uncertainty on design flood. The results show that the design flood with a given return period under non-stationary conditions varies with the engineering design lifetime, and the uncertainty of the design flood estimation increases when the engineering design lifetime extends.

     

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