任国玉, 任玉玉, 战云健, 孙秀宝, 柳艳菊, 陈峪, 王涛. 中国大陆降水时空变异规律——Ⅱ.现代变化趋势[J]. 水科学进展, 2015, 26(4): 451-465. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.04.001
引用本文: 任国玉, 任玉玉, 战云健, 孙秀宝, 柳艳菊, 陈峪, 王涛. 中国大陆降水时空变异规律——Ⅱ.现代变化趋势[J]. 水科学进展, 2015, 26(4): 451-465. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.04.001
REN Guoyu, REN Yuyu, ZHAN Yunjian, SUN Xiubao, LIU Yanju, CHEN Yu, WANG Tao. Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation variability over mainland China: Ⅱ: Recent trends[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2015, 26(4): 451-465. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.04.001
Citation: REN Guoyu, REN Yuyu, ZHAN Yunjian, SUN Xiubao, LIU Yanju, CHEN Yu, WANG Tao. Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation variability over mainland China: Ⅱ: Recent trends[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2015, 26(4): 451-465. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.04.001

中国大陆降水时空变异规律——Ⅱ.现代变化趋势

Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation variability over mainland China: Ⅱ: Recent trends

  • 摘要: 为改进、完善对中国现代降水长期变化规律的理解,利用2 300个国家级气象站网观测资料,更新分析了全国1956—2013年基本降水指标的趋势变化特征。主要结果:① 全国平均年和季节降水量、降水量距平百分率未表现出显著趋势变化,但秋、冬季降水量距平百分率分别表现出较明显的下降和上升;② 年和夏季降水减少主要发生在东北中南部、华北、华中和西南地区,而东南沿海、长江下游、青藏高原和西北等地区年降水增加较明显;③ 降水趋势变化的空间结构相对稳定,北方降水减少范围有由黄土高原、华北平原向东北和西南扩散趋向,东北北部和长江中下游的降水增加范围变小,总体看东部降水减少和增加的区域均在萎缩,“南涝北旱”现象趋向缓解;④ 全国年平均暴雨量、日数呈现出较显著的增加,但暴雨强度没有明显变化,暴雨量和日数增加主要发生在珠江和东南诸河流域,而海河和西南诸河流域暴雨量、日数和强度呈较明显减少趋势;⑤ 东部季风区1日、连续3日和连续5日最大降水量均有一定程度增加,1日最大降水量增加最明显,连续5日最大降水量增加最弱,极端强降水事件持续时间呈现出短历时性倾向。

     

    Abstract: Applying precipitation indices series of quality-controlled daily data from over 2 300 stations, the characteristics of long-term precipitation variations over the past 60 years for mainland China are analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: ① No significant long-term trends of annual and seasonal precipitation percentage anomalies have been found for mainland China as a whole, though a relatively significant decrease and increase have been seen for the seasonal precipitation percentage anomalies for autumn and winter respectively; ② Decrease in annual and summer precipitation mainly occurred in central and southern Northeast China, North China, western Central China and Southwest China. Increase mainly occurred in southeastern coastal region, the mid and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China; ③ The spatial patterns of the annual and seasonal precipitation trends were relatively stable. The decrease areas migrated from the Loess Plateau and North China toward northeast and southwest after 1990s, the increase areas in Northwest China and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau did not change much or marginally expanded, and the increase areas in northern Northeast China and the mid and lower reaches of the Yangtze River obviously shrank. In the eastern monsoon region, the areas with either increasing or decreasing trends reduced for the last two decades; ④ Significant increases in annual amount and frequency of rainstorms, 3.18 mm/10 a and 0.03 d/10 a respectively, have been observed for the past 60 years, though the intensity of rainstorms remained unchanged. The increase mostly appeared in the Pearl River basin and the rivers of southeastern region. The Haihe River and the rivers of Southwest China witnessed a remarkable decrease in annual amount, frequency and intensity of rainstorms; ⑤ Proportions of the stations with increase (decrease) annual maximum 1 d, continuous maximum 3 d and continuous maximum 5 d precipitation were 59.2% (40.8%), 54.4% (45.6%) and 51.5% (48.5%) respectively, and those with statistically significant increase (decrease) are 5.1% (1.2%), 4.2% (2.5%) and 3.7% (2.8%) respectively, indicating an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme intense precipitation events, and a tendency toward shorter duration for single extreme intense precipitation events.

     

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