The Application of Water (Mass) Balance Model in Glacierized Area to Assessing the Climate Impact on Glacial Water Resources

A water (mass) balance model is suggested, which can be used to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of plausible climatic changes in glacierized area.Taking an example of Glacier No.1,Headwaters of Urumqi River on the northern slop of Tianshan Mts., hypothetical twenty climatic change scenarios are discussed,which are combinations of temperature incrcase from 1-4℃ with precipitation change of 0, ±10% and ±20%. The results show that the present runoff yielded in the glacierized area is the maximum during the period of glacial retreat, higher than that among the twenty hypothetical scenarios. Therefore the runoff of the rivers fed by glaciers in the cold high mountains in Northwest China would decrease gradually as the global climate becomes wanner.