Research and Applications of a Forecasting Model of Typhoon Surges in China Seas

A dynamic-numerical, typhoon surge model has been developed by the authors. The model is two-dimensional in space. The equations of fluid motion are solved numerically with finite-difference shills, incorporating finite-amplitude effects and the variation of Coriolis parameter with latitude, but dropping the advective terms. The method of non-dimensional analysis For widely used formulae of pressure distribution in a typhoon area was employed to choose the best representative ones of them.The model has been used in real-time forecasting of typhoon surges since 1988. Satisfactory results were obtained in the real-time predictions during more than two years when the typhoon tracks and their intensities were forecasted accurately.