Flood control operation chart for Three Gorges Reservoir considering errors in inflow forecasting

The daily inflow forecast results of the Three Gorges reservoir (TGR)were analyzed,and the probability density functions of inflow forecasting relative errors with lead-times were estimated by using the nonparametric estimation.Considering the power generation and navigation,a flood control operation chart model was developed based on the inflow forecasting information.The proposed model was solved with a differential evolution algorithm.By comparing the results of different forecasting schemes,the impact of forecasting errors on flood control operation was analyzed.It is shown that the optimal reservoir flood control operation chart based on the current forecasting scheme can generate 5.3% extra hydropower energy,save 6.9% flood water resources,increase the flood peak clipping ratio by 1.7%,and the capacity to withstand the risk of 1000-year design flood can be also greatly increased.