Long term distribution of disaster-caused typhoon storm surges in the coastal area

On the basis of observed tide level and the wave height series sampled from typhoon processes in Qingdao area since 1949,a Poisson Bi-variable Gumbel Logistic distribution(PBGL) is put forward for statistical analysis of storm events.The PBGL model,different from the traditional warning stage method,is more capable of describing the combined effect of environmental loads,such as tide level and the concomitant wave height.The return periods are estimated for several most serious typhoons occurring in the mentioned coastal area.The results indicate that the proposed model will be suitable for representing the joint probability distribution of correlated water level and wave heights occurring in typhoon processes.The final conclusions are presented for reference when the government departments make a storm-prevention program.