Regional differentiation and future patterns of land use changes in the water conservation zone of the Yellow River

Investigating historical and future land use/land cover change (LUCC) characteristics in the water conservation zone of the Yellow River is important for protecting soil and water resources in the Yellow River basin and maintaining ecosystem service functions. In the study area and three major subareas (Ⅰ: Upper Yellow River water source area; Ⅱ: Southern Weihe River mountainous area; Ⅲ: Yiluo River area), based on land cover product data from 1990 to 2020, a transfer matrix, Geodetector, and CA-Markov model were used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of LUCC to detect the driving factors and predict future spatial patterns (2025). The results showed that since the 2000s, LUCC in the study area and subareas experienced two main trends: returning farmland to forestland and grassland and rapid growth of construction land. LUCC in the whole area was mainly driven by food production, elevation and population density, while the dominant drivers of LUCC in Subareas Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ were elevation, population density and food production, respectively. Under the future ecological protection scenario, compared to those under the natural development scenario, the expansion of farmland and construction land will be constrained, and the area of ecological land can be better safeguarded to support ecological service functions such as water conservation.