Study on the design wave on the artificial island of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge while considering the extreme weather: I: selection method of the typhoon track in numerical wave simulation

Numerical wave simulation under hypothetical typhoon conditions has a pivotal role in the risk assessment of cross-sea bridges and tunnels. The wind-field generation and the adverse track selection have a large influence on the wave simulation results. This study verified the rationality of wave simulation under a single hypothetical typhoon wind field and analyzed the effects of different typhoon tracks on the waves in different directions of the project area. A numerical wind-wave model in the Pearl River Estuary was constructed according to intensities based on a 300-yr return period and tested via Monte Carlo simulation,which was applied to 104 typhoon tracks selected by the radius method. The results show that the adverse tracks that significantly impact the wave field at the West Artificial Island are within 100 km of the Pearl River Estuary. Seven adverse typhoon tracks reflecting different characteristics were obtained,which provided a basis for further study of the typhoon wave process in the Pearl River Estuary under extreme weather conditions. This study provides methodological support for the wave parameter analysis of large-scale engineering at coasts and estuaries that are susceptible to typhoons.