Adaptability assessment and promotion strategy of the Yellow River Water Allocation Scheme

The Yellow River Water Allocation Scheme ("Scheme 1987") provides an important foundation for basin-scale water resources management. The Scheme 1987 has been in place for more than 30 years,during which time both the natural environment and the socioeconomics in the Yellow River basin have changed dramatically. Thus there is an urgent need to assess the adaptability of Scheme 1987 in changing environments. We have developed a dynamic differential equation and comprehensive evaluation model to assess water allocation scheme adaptability using power system principles. We have constructed an index system consisting of 20 metrics of sensibility,stability,resistance,and resilience and used our method to assess Scheme 1987 between 1999 and 2017. The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter has been used to reveal the adaptability trend. The results show that Scheme 1987 adapted well to the changing environment,with highly adaptable years accounting for more than 63.2% of the 19-year period. Adaptability increased early,peaking in 2005,and then decreased. The scheme began showing an inability to adapt since 2014. We have identified the major factors influencing the adaptability of Scheme 1987 and suggested some adjustments for basin-scale water resources management.