Study on the rapid prediction of sudden water pollution for South-to-North Water Transfer Project

Taking the typical main canal of the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project as an example, the numerical simulation of sudden soluble water pollution in complex channel is carried out. First, the rapid prediction formulas of characteristic parameters (i. e., peak transport distance, pollutant longitudinal length and peak concentration) are presented based on numerical simulation, mathematical induction, and statistical analysis method. Then the rapid prediction formulas are verified by demonstration project. The results indicate that:① The peak transport distance and the add value of pollutant longitudinal length is decreasing with the channel velocity decreasing, but the peak concentration is increasing with the channel velocity decreasing; ② The relative errors between physical model test, numerical simulation and measured results are less than 15%. The rapid prediction formulas can provide decision support for managers making emergency control measures.