Research on the 10-minute rainfall prediction model for debris flows

High-intensity short duration rainfall was the main triggering factor for the gully type debris flows which are triggered by a runoff induced mechanism. The 10-minute rainfall intensity is considered as the trigger. A revised prediction model with factors related to rainfall is introduced for this kind of gully type debris flows and applied to the Jiangjia gully. A 10-minute rainfall coefficient intensity is proposed based on the 1-hour prediction model, and the observational data of Jiangjia gully is presented. The model was successfully validated in debris flow gullies with the same initiation mechanism in other areas of west China. The generic character of the model is explained by the fact that its factors are partly based on the initiation mechanisms and not only on the statistical analyses of an unique variety of local factors. The research provides a new way to predict the occurrence of debris flows initiated by a runoff induced mechanism.