赵君, 刘雨, 徐进超, 王国庆, 邵月红, 杨林. 基于贝叶斯三角帽法的多源降水数据融合分析及应用[J]. 水科学进展, 2023, 34(5): 685-696. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.05.004
引用本文: 赵君, 刘雨, 徐进超, 王国庆, 邵月红, 杨林. 基于贝叶斯三角帽法的多源降水数据融合分析及应用[J]. 水科学进展, 2023, 34(5): 685-696. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.05.004
ZHAO Jun, LIU Yu, XU Jinchao, WANG Guoqing, SHAO Yuehong, YANG Lin. Multi-source precipitation data fusion analysis and application based on Bayesian-Three Cornered Hat method[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2023, 34(5): 685-696. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.05.004
Citation: ZHAO Jun, LIU Yu, XU Jinchao, WANG Guoqing, SHAO Yuehong, YANG Lin. Multi-source precipitation data fusion analysis and application based on Bayesian-Three Cornered Hat method[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2023, 34(5): 685-696. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.05.004

基于贝叶斯三角帽法的多源降水数据融合分析及应用

Multi-source precipitation data fusion analysis and application based on Bayesian-Three Cornered Hat method

  • 摘要: 目前的降水产品依然存在较大的不确定性, 采用多源降水数据融合可以更准确地估计降水量和空间分布情况。为实现无资料地区的数据融合, 本文在不使用任何先验信息的前提下, 通过整合站点插值、卫星遥感和再分析的降水产品, 基于贝叶斯三角帽(Bayesian-Three Cornered Hat, BTCH)法, 融合多源降水数据, 探究不同输入数量的降水产品对于融合数据精度的影响以及每个降水产品对于融合数据精度的贡献率, 并在黄河源区进行应用。结果表明: 在月尺度上, 融合数据性能优于原始降水产品; 在日尺度上, 融合数据性能明显高于卫星遥感和再分析降水产品, 但低于基于站点的降水产品CHM_PRE; 2套基于站点的降水产品CN05.1和CHM_PRE对于融合数据有最大的贡献率。在黄河源区的应用表明, 该数据融合方法确实能够更准确地估计降水量, 可应用于无实测降水资料地区, 为数据融合分析及应用提供参考。

     

    Abstract: At present, precipitation products still have great uncertainty. Precipitation and its spatial distribution can be estimated more accurately by using multi-source precipitation data fusion. To achieve data fusion in no-gauged areas, Bayesian-Three Cornered Hat method is adopted to integrate precipitation products based on gauged data, satellite remote sensing and reanalysis data without any prior information, to explore the influence of precipitation products with different input quantities on the accuracy of fusion data, and to study the contribution rates of each precipitation product to the accuracy of fusion data. It is applied in the source region of the Yellow River. The results show that the performance of the fusion data is better than that of the original precipitation products on the monthly scale. On the daily scale, the performance of the fusion data is obviously better than that of satellite remote sensing and reanalysis precipitation products, but lower than that of the gauge-based precipitation product CHM_PRE. Two gauge-based precipitation products, CN05. 1 and CHM_PRE, have the largest contribution rates to the fusion data. The application in the source region of the Yellow River shows that the Bayesian-Three Cornered Hat method can estimate precipitation more accurately. It is suitable for no-gauged areas, and can provide the reference basis for data fusion analysis and its application.

     

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