1966—2015年长江流域水文干旱时空演变归因
Patterns and attributions of hydrological drought in the Yangtze River basin from 1966 to 2015
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摘要: 气候变化和人类活动叠加影响下长江流域干旱情势日益严重且复杂多变, 严重威胁着流域经济社会可持续发展, 亟需探究自然变率和人类活动对长江流域水文干旱时空演变的作用机制, 量化人类活动对水文干旱事件发生频次、破坏深度以及恢复速度的影响。本研究运用可细化人类活动影响的PCR-GLOBWB 2.0模型, 耦合标准化径流指数(ISR)和可靠性-回弹性-脆弱性(RRV)框架, 构建长江流域水文干旱状态的时空演变特征评估指标(ISRI-RRV), 揭示长江流域1966—2015年水文干旱状态的时空变化规律, 定量评估水库调度和人类取用水等人类活动对长江流域极端水文干旱事件发生频率、持续时间和破坏深度的影响程度。结果表明: PCR-GLOBWB 2.0模型和ISRI-RRV可准确表征长江流域水文干旱情势, 量化人类活动对长江流域水文干旱状态时空演变特征的影响; 1966—2015年长江流域水文干旱状态整体呈现恶化的趋势, 但人类活动减少了1992年以来长江流域水文干旱面积占比; 2006—2015年人类活动情景下长江流域的ISRI-RRV明显高于自然情景, 以水库调节为主的人类活动对长江流域整体ISRI-RRV的提高贡献率较大。Abstract: As one of the possible consequences of climate change and human activities, extreme drought becomes more frequent. This study investigates how human activities altered the hydrological droughts pattern in the Yangtze River basin from 1966 to 2015 by using the ISRI-RRV. ISRI-RRV is calculated based on the PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 model simulated ISR and Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability (RRV). The results show that the model simulated ISR can effectively reflect the hydrological drought situation of the Yangtze River basin. From 1966 to 2015, the hydrological drought in the Yangtze River basin showed an increasing trend and the human activities can reduce the proportion of the hydrological drought area in the Yangtze River basin after 1992. The ISRI-RRV of the Yangtze River basin under the human activity scenario from 2006 to 2015 is significantly higher than that under the natural scenario. The human water intake activities dominated by reservoir regulation have the largest contribution to the increase of ISRI-RRV of the Yangtze River basin.
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