黄文峰, 李瑞, 李志军, 张庾粟, 杨文焕. 1979—2021年鄂陵湖和扎陵湖结冰日变化及主控因素分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2023, 34(1): 102-114. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.01.010
引用本文: 黄文峰, 李瑞, 李志军, 张庾粟, 杨文焕. 1979—2021年鄂陵湖和扎陵湖结冰日变化及主控因素分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2023, 34(1): 102-114. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.01.010
HUANG Wenfeng, LI Rui, LI Zhijun, ZHANG Yusu, YANG Wenhuan. Analysis on the variation of ice-on date of Lakes Ngoring and Gyaring from 1979—2021 and its influencing factors[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2023, 34(1): 102-114. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.01.010
Citation: HUANG Wenfeng, LI Rui, LI Zhijun, ZHANG Yusu, YANG Wenhuan. Analysis on the variation of ice-on date of Lakes Ngoring and Gyaring from 1979—2021 and its influencing factors[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2023, 34(1): 102-114. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.01.010

1979—2021年鄂陵湖和扎陵湖结冰日变化及主控因素分析

Analysis on the variation of ice-on date of Lakes Ngoring and Gyaring from 1979—2021 and its influencing factors

  • 摘要: 湖冰物候过程影响着湖泊冰封期湖泊环境的初始、发展和结束条件以及湖-气作用等。为了探究青藏高原淡水湖泊湖冰物候变化趋势及影响因素, 对FLake模型进行改进, 并使用MODIS温度数据进行验证, 以鄂陵湖和扎陵湖为例, 重建其1979—2021年结冰日数据序列, 利用模型对湖泊结冰日进行敏感性分析。结果表明: 改进的FLake-SELF模型对两湖的结冰日计算精度提升了35%, 重建序列显示鄂陵湖和扎陵湖结冰日分别以4.5 d/(10 a)、3.8 d/(10 a)的速率推迟; 气温变暖、风速降低和水汽压增加是导致两湖结冰日推迟的最主要气象因素, 气温、水汽压和风速的年际差异是造成两湖结冰日年际波动的关键气象因素; 相同的气候变化条件下, 湖泊深度的不同是造成两湖结冰日及其变化速率差异的原因; 较深的湖泊, 结冰日年际波动性越大、变化速率越大, 对气候变化响应更为敏感。

     

    Abstract: Lake ice phenology affects the lake environment and lake-air interaction through the ice-covered period. In order to investigate the trends and influencing factors of lake ice phenology in freshwater lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, the FLake model was employed after improvement. The model validation used MODIS surface temperature data based reconstruction of the ice-on date time series in 1979—2021 for Lakes Ngoring and Gyaring. Sensitivity experiments were conducted using the improved model. The results showed that the present FLake-SELF model improved the accuracy of the ice-on date calculation by 35%, and the reconstructed sequences showed that the ice-on dates of Lakes Ngoring and Gyaring have been delayed by 4.5 d/(10 a) and 3.8 d/(10 a), respectively. Increasing air temperature, decreasing wind speed, and increasing vapor pressure are the most important meteorological factors leading to the delay of ice-on date, and interannual variability in these factors were the most important reasons for the interannual fluctuations of ice-on dates in the two lakes. In the same climate conditions, the different lake depth was the reason for the differences in ice-on date and their delay rate between the two lakes. The deeper the lake was, the greater was the interannual fluctuation in ice-on date, the greater was the rate of change of ice-on date, and the more sensitive was the ice-on date to climate change.

     

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