李大洋, 姚轶, 梁忠民, 周艳, 李彬权. 基于变分贝叶斯深度学习的水文概率预报方法[J]. 水科学进展, 2023, 34(1): 33-41. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.01.004
引用本文: 李大洋, 姚轶, 梁忠民, 周艳, 李彬权. 基于变分贝叶斯深度学习的水文概率预报方法[J]. 水科学进展, 2023, 34(1): 33-41. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.01.004
LI Dayang, YAO Yi, LIANG Zhongmin, ZHOU Yan, LI Binquan. Probabilistic hydrological forecasting based on variational Bayesian deep learning[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2023, 34(1): 33-41. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.01.004
Citation: LI Dayang, YAO Yi, LIANG Zhongmin, ZHOU Yan, LI Binquan. Probabilistic hydrological forecasting based on variational Bayesian deep learning[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2023, 34(1): 33-41. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.01.004

基于变分贝叶斯深度学习的水文概率预报方法

Probabilistic hydrological forecasting based on variational Bayesian deep learning

  • 摘要: 目前水文领域关于深度学习的研究多集中于提高预测能力方面,与具有物理机制的水文模型相比,深度学习复杂的内部结构导致其不具备可解释性,预测结果难以被信任,因此发展可信赖的深度学习对于推进水科学发展具有重要意义。基于预报残差分析框架,构建具有物理机制的水文模型与深度学习融合的混合模型,以充分利用两者优势; 引入变分贝叶斯理论,提出变分贝叶斯与深度学习耦合的概率预报模型VB-LSTM,以定量评估水文预报结果的不确定性、提高结果可靠度。以黄河源区1961—2015年的径流过程为研究对象,对VB-LSTM模型进行应用示例研究。结果表明: 与长短时记忆网络(LSTM)相比,VB-LSTM模型在验证期预报精度更高,结果更稳定; 与传统基于“线性-正态”假设的水文概率预报方法相比,VB-LSTM模型具有更高的预报精度,且不确定性更小、预报结果更可靠。

     

    Abstract: The field of deep learning research in hydrology primarily aims to enhance prediction capabilities. However, the intricate structure of deep learning models often leads to predictions that are difficult to explain and trust, making the development of trustworthy deep learning models a challenging and increasingly important topic. In this paper, we present a novel hybrid model that combines the strengths of deep learning and physical-based hydrological models to improve predictions in hydrology. Utilizing a framework of a residual error model, our approach develops a VB-LSTM (variational Bayesian deep learning model) to quantify hydrological uncertainty and enhance predictive reliability. We applied our model to predict streamflow in the source area of the Yellow River from 1961 to 2015, and the results demonstrate its superiority over traditional methods. Compared to long-short term memory networks (LSTM), the VB-LSTM model achieved stable performance and higher predictive accuracy in the validation period. Additionally, it outperforms the traditional probabilistic hydrological post-processing method that relies on a "linear-normal" assumption, by providing higher predictive accuracy and reliability, and reducing predictive uncertainty.

     

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