李伶杰, 王银堂, 唐国强, 高轩, 王磊之, 胡庆芳. 考虑有雨无雨辨识的多源降水融合方法[J]. 水科学进展, 2022, 33(5): 780-793. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2022.05.008
引用本文: 李伶杰, 王银堂, 唐国强, 高轩, 王磊之, 胡庆芳. 考虑有雨无雨辨识的多源降水融合方法[J]. 水科学进展, 2022, 33(5): 780-793. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2022.05.008
LI Lingjie, WANG Yintang, TANG Guoqiang, GAO Xuan, WANG Leizhi, HU Qingfang. An innovative multi-source precipitation merging method with the identification of rain and no rain[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2022, 33(5): 780-793. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2022.05.008
Citation: LI Lingjie, WANG Yintang, TANG Guoqiang, GAO Xuan, WANG Leizhi, HU Qingfang. An innovative multi-source precipitation merging method with the identification of rain and no rain[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2022, 33(5): 780-793. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2022.05.008

考虑有雨无雨辨识的多源降水融合方法

An innovative multi-source precipitation merging method with the identification of rain and no rain

  • 摘要: 多源降水融合是精准估计降水时空分布的重要途径, 多聚焦降水量或降水强度的误差订正, 对短历时降水雨区辨识的重视不足。提出考虑有雨无雨辨识的多源降水融合框架, 耦合地理加权逻辑回归与地理加权回归模型, 构建兼顾雨区辨识及雨量估计的降水融合方法, 并应用于汉江流域MSWEP V2.1与地面站网观测日降水融合。结果表明: 所提方法成功再现有雨无雨空间格局并刻画了降水中心, 整体强化了MSWEP V2.1对地面降水的表征能力, 降低误报率和误报降水量的幅度超过了60%, 提高临界成功指数和Kling-Gupta效率系数达40%以上; 较降水空间插值数据, 削减误报降水量并提升Kling-Gupta效率系数高于10%;另外, 较参考数据, 降水融合改善强降水事件(雨强≥50 mm/d)分辨精度的增益不低于60%。所提方法有效改善了降水估计效果, 为多源降水融合提供了新思路。

     

    Abstract: Multi-source precipitation merging is a crucial way to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation accurately. The commonly used merging methods mainly focus on bias correction of the total precipitation amount or precipitation intensity but often neglect to identify short-duration precipitation. In this study, we proposed a merging framework of multi-source precipitation by identifying rain and no rain and constructed a precipitation merging method considering both rain area identification and rainfall estimation by coupling the geographical weighted logistic regression (GWLR) and geographically weighted regression models (GWR). Then, the merging experiments of the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation Version 2.1 (MSWEP V2.1) and the daily precipitation observed by the ground gauges network over the Han River basin were implemented. The results show that the proposed method successfully reproduces the spatial pattern of rain and no rain and catches the precipitation center. It overall strengthens the performance of MSWEP V2.1 to estimate ground precipitation, reduces the false alarm rate (RFA) and false precipitation (PF) by more than 60%, and improves the critical success index (ICS) and Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient (EKG) by more than 40%. Moreover, the gains of correcting PF and improving EKG are higher than 10% against the spatially interpolated precipitation. Meanwhile, compared with reference data, precipitation fusion enhances the classification accuracy of heavy precipitation events (intensity ≥ 50 mm/d) by not less than 60%. The innovative method effectively improves the performance of precipitation estimation and provides a new idea for multi-source precipitation merging.

     

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