张建云, 张成凤, 鲍振鑫, 李淼, 王国庆, 管晓祥, 刘翠善. 黄淮海流域植被覆盖变化对径流的影响[J]. 水科学进展, 2021, 32(6): 813-823. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2021.06.001
引用本文: 张建云, 张成凤, 鲍振鑫, 李淼, 王国庆, 管晓祥, 刘翠善. 黄淮海流域植被覆盖变化对径流的影响[J]. 水科学进展, 2021, 32(6): 813-823. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2021.06.001
ZHANG Jianyun, ZHANG Chengfeng, BAO Zhenxin, LI Miao, WANG Guoqing, GUAN Xiaoxiang, LIU Cuishan. Analysis of the effects of vegetation changes on runoff in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin under global change[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2021, 32(6): 813-823. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2021.06.001
Citation: ZHANG Jianyun, ZHANG Chengfeng, BAO Zhenxin, LI Miao, WANG Guoqing, GUAN Xiaoxiang, LIU Cuishan. Analysis of the effects of vegetation changes on runoff in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin under global change[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2021, 32(6): 813-823. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2021.06.001

黄淮海流域植被覆盖变化对径流的影响

Analysis of the effects of vegetation changes on runoff in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin under global change

  • 摘要: 植被是流域水循环过程的重要环境因子之一,植被变化对径流的影响是当前研究的国际前沿和热点问题。以全球变绿最突出的黄淮海流域为研究对象,基于1982-2016年水文气象观测资料及归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据,利用Mann-Kendall等趋势检验方法检测NDVI的时空变化特征。基于Budyko-Fu公式构建黄淮海流域水热耦合模拟模型,分析模拟径流对Budyko-Fu模型参数ω的敏感性;基于参数ω与气候、植被等要素的统计关系,建立利用气候季节性指数和NDVI计算参数ω的经验公式,利用弹性系数法,识别参数ω对NDVI变化的响应,利用复合函数链式求导法则研究NDVI变化对黄淮海流域径流的影响。结果表明:1982-2016年黄淮海流域NDVI呈显著增加趋势;NDVI增加会使模型参数ω增加,进而导致径流量减少;NDVI每增加10%,黄淮海流域径流量平均减少8.3%;植被变化对径流的影响具有显著的空间差异性,气候越干旱、植被条件越差地区的NDVI变化对径流影响越显著。

     

    Abstract: Vegetation is one of the critical environmental factors driving the hydrologic cycle. The impact of vegetation change on runoff is a hot issue. As a pronounced greening region, the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin (HHHRB) was selected as the studying area. Based on long-term (1982-2016) hydro-meteorological and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets, the spatial and temporal change in NDVI was detected using Mann-Kendall's test methodology. The relationship between NDVI and the parameter ω of Budyko-Fu's model was analyzed using an empirical formula and an elasticity method. Taking the parameter ω as a link, the impact of NDVI change on runoff in HHHRB was investigated with the chain rule for derivatives of complex functions. Several new findings were investigated: ① There was a statistically significant increasing trend in NDVI during the last 35 years over HHHRB. ② An increase in NDVI would increase the model parameter ω, thereby leading to a decrease in the runoff. ③ There might be an average reduction of 8.3% in runoff as a 10% increase in NDVI in the HHHRB. ④ The runoff was more sensitive to NDVI change under drier climate and sparser vegetation conditions. The results could improve the understanding of the mechanism of the water cycle in a changing environment and might provide scientific and technological support for water resources planning and vegetation management.

     

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