张弛, 陈晓贤, 李昱, 丁伟. 跨流域引水受水水库最优调度决策的理论分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2018, 29(4): 492-504. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2018.04.005
引用本文: 张弛, 陈晓贤, 李昱, 丁伟. 跨流域引水受水水库最优调度决策的理论分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2018, 29(4): 492-504. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2018.04.005
ZHANG Chi, CHEN Xiaoxian, LI Yu, DING Wei. Analytical analysis for optimal operation of the recipient reservoir in inter-basin water transfer projects[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2018, 29(4): 492-504. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2018.04.005
Citation: ZHANG Chi, CHEN Xiaoxian, LI Yu, DING Wei. Analytical analysis for optimal operation of the recipient reservoir in inter-basin water transfer projects[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2018, 29(4): 492-504. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2018.04.005

跨流域引水受水水库最优调度决策的理论分析

Analytical analysis for optimal operation of the recipient reservoir in inter-basin water transfer projects

  • 摘要: 针对跨流域调水工程的实时调度决策问题,考虑受水水库的供水效益与引水成本,建立受水水库实时调度的理论分析框架,制定最优引、供水决策,分析预报不确定性对调度决策的影响,提出预报信息可利用准则。辽宁省大伙房应急入连工程的应用表明:若受水水库可用水量较少,引水后水库当前时段供水效益与时段末蓄水效益均增加,最优决策满足引水边际成本、供水边际效益与蓄水边际效益三者相等;随受水水库可用水量增多,水库按需供水,引水仅提升蓄水效益,最优决策使引水边际成本等于蓄水边际效益。若水库期望蓄水量较小,水库缺水概率较大,预报信息可利用性取决于可接受缺水风险;反之,水库弃水概率较大,预报信息可利用性取决于可接受弃水风险。

     

    Abstract: A theoretical analysis framework considering the tradeoff between water supply benefit and water diversion cost is established to deal with real-time operation issues in inter-basin water diversion projects. First, the optimal decisions for the recipient reservoir are discussed. Then, how the forecast information uncertainty may influence the reservoir operation is investigated, and a criterion on forecast information utilization is established based on the acceptable risks of water shortage and spill. Finally, the Biliuhe reservoir in Liaoning Province is taken as an example to verify the analytical framework. The results show that when the water availability amount of the recipient reservoir is small, water diversion could increase both the immediate benefit of water use at the current time step and the potential benefit of water storage at the end of the decision period. At optimality, the marginal benefit of storage equals the marginal benefit of current release, as well as the marginal cost of water diversion. With the increase of the water availability (before water diversion), water is released based on the current water demand, and the increase of water diversion improves only the benefit of water storage. In this case, at optimality, the marginal cost of water diversion is equal to the marginal benefit of water storage. Moreover, when the expected water storage is small, the reservoir has a relatively high probability of water shortage. The utilization of the forecast information depends on the acceptable risk of water shortage. Otherwise, the reservoir has a higher probability of flow spill, and the utilization of the forecast information depends on the acceptable risk of spill.

     

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