乔建平, 李明俐, 杨宗佶, 孟华君, 姜元俊. 基于模型试验的泥石流坡面物源启动预警模型[J]. 水科学进展, 2018, 29(1): 64-72. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2018.01.008
引用本文: 乔建平, 李明俐, 杨宗佶, 孟华君, 姜元俊. 基于模型试验的泥石流坡面物源启动预警模型[J]. 水科学进展, 2018, 29(1): 64-72. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2018.01.008
QIAO Jianping, LI Mingli, YANG Zongji, MENG Huajun, JIANG Yuanjun. Warning model study of debris flow slope source starting based on experimental method[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2018, 29(1): 64-72. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2018.01.008
Citation: QIAO Jianping, LI Mingli, YANG Zongji, MENG Huajun, JIANG Yuanjun. Warning model study of debris flow slope source starting based on experimental method[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2018, 29(1): 64-72. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2018.01.008

基于模型试验的泥石流坡面物源启动预警模型

Warning model study of debris flow slope source starting based on experimental method

  • 摘要: 为进一步探明银洞子沟物源区坡面物源启动机理与降雨的相关性,在进行详细的现场考察与工程勘察工作后选取了典型模型体,并采用20余组人工降雨物理试验方法将降雨强度与坡度设为控制变量,研究了4种坡形、5种雨强条件下,坡面松散物源的失稳机制及破坏模式。试验结果揭示了地表变形与地下物理力学参数变化的定量响应关系,并基于试验发生破坏的临界雨量,建立了银洞子沟传统I-D预警模型。之后提炼可靠预警参数(坡度、深部体积含水率),通过数学回归分析方法并采用Exponential模型,得出IGD、IGM多参数新型预警判别式,实现了传统I-D模型的有效修正,并具一定的可靠性和实用价值。

     

    Abstract: To further realize the correlation between rainfall and the starting mechanism of the slope debris flow in the source area of Yindongzi gully, a typical model was selected after a detailed fieldwork and engineering investigation. The rainfall intensity and gradient were set as control variables using 20 large artificial rainfall physical model tests under four gradients and five rainfall intensity conditions to research the instability mechanism and failure patterns of the slope debris flow. The experimental results revealed the starting and failure model of the source of the loose slope and the response relationship of the surface deformation and the underground physical mechanical parameters. Then, a traditional I-D (rainfall intensity-duration) early warning model was established. Next, reliable warning parameters (i. e. gradient and moisture content) were extracted and the exponential model and means of the mathematical regression analysis were used to determine the IGD and IGM multi-parameter forecast model, while the traditional model was effectively modified for dependability and practical utility.

     

/

返回文章
返回