毛威, 朱焱, 史良胜, 刘昭, 戴恒, 杨金忠. 基于田间试验的土壤水分运动模型选择[J]. 水科学进展, 2016, 27(2): 231-239. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.02.008
引用本文: 毛威, 朱焱, 史良胜, 刘昭, 戴恒, 杨金忠. 基于田间试验的土壤水分运动模型选择[J]. 水科学进展, 2016, 27(2): 231-239. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.02.008
MAO Wei, ZHU Yan, SHI Liangsheng, LIU Zhao, DAI Heng, YANG Jinzhong. Modified unsaturated water flow model selection method and application to field experiments[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2016, 27(2): 231-239. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.02.008
Citation: MAO Wei, ZHU Yan, SHI Liangsheng, LIU Zhao, DAI Heng, YANG Jinzhong. Modified unsaturated water flow model selection method and application to field experiments[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2016, 27(2): 231-239. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.02.008

基于田间试验的土壤水分运动模型选择

Modified unsaturated water flow model selection method and application to field experiments

  • 摘要: 基于不同形式Richards方程可建立不同适用范围和计算精度的数值模型,针对具体情况下如何选择合适模型的问题,以武汉大学农田水利试验场田间入渗试验为例,选用6种模型(Picard-h模型、Picard-θ模型、Picard-mix模型、Ross模型、动力波模型和水均衡模型),运用贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)方法进行了模型选择的计算;针对BMA方法无法考虑模型计算效率的缺点,进一步提出了可同时考虑模型计算精度与计算效率的改进BMA方法。计算结果表明,在本田间尺度问题中,Ross模型排序最高,说明其兼具高精度与高效率,改进BMA方法可增加高计算效率模型被选中的概率,使模型选择更加全面合理。

     

    Abstract: Most popular unsaturated-saturated water flow models were developed based on solving different forms of Richards' equation. Because these models all have their unique applicability and computational accuracy, it is important to select the most reasonable and efficient model for specified problems. This research used a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method to select the optimal one from six types of unsaturated water flow models (Picard-h model, Picard-θ model, Picard-mix model, Ross model, Kinematic wave model, and water balance model), using real data from field infiltration experiments. The BMA method was first implemented to estimate the model accuracy. Then a modified version of BMA for model selection was proposed to consider the model accuracy and computational cost simultaneously. The results demonstrated that Ross is the optimal model with the best model accuracy and computational efficiency. The modified BMA method will increase the probability of an efficient model and can provide a more comprehensive and reasonable model selection.

     

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