朱永华, 夏军, 刘苏峡, 贾绍凤, 丰华丽. 海河流域生态环境承载能力计算[J]. 水科学进展, 2005, 16(5): 649-654.
引用本文: 朱永华, 夏军, 刘苏峡, 贾绍凤, 丰华丽. 海河流域生态环境承载能力计算[J]. 水科学进展, 2005, 16(5): 649-654.
ZHU Yong-hua, XIA Jun, LIU Su-xia, JIA Shao-feng, FENG Hua-li. Calculation of carrying capacity of eco-environments in Haihe River basins[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2005, 16(5): 649-654.
Citation: ZHU Yong-hua, XIA Jun, LIU Su-xia, JIA Shao-feng, FENG Hua-li. Calculation of carrying capacity of eco-environments in Haihe River basins[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2005, 16(5): 649-654.

海河流域生态环境承载能力计算

Calculation of carrying capacity of eco-environments in Haihe River basins

  • 摘要: 利用多目标多阶段互动优化模型计算了海河流域生态环境承载力,确定了海河流域在南水北调、经济常规发展、生态环境逐步改善情况下的承载能力过程变化,结果表明:①海河流域现状处于严重的生态环境不可承载状态;②到2033年海河流域生态环境恢复到生态环境社会经济复合系统的良好状态;③海河流域生态环境临界可承载年2033年,可承载人口为15 730万,比自然预测人口15 100万多630万,工业、农业、生态及生活用水量占总用水量的比例将分别是28%、43%、18%、11%。

     

    Abstract: An interactional optimization model of multi-objectives and multi steps is used to calculate the carrying capacity of eco-environments related to water,and determine the course change of the carrying capacity in the case of the water supply of “South-to-North Water”. Transfer Project,the economical normal development and the graduall amelioration of eco-environments.The results are as follows ①Haihe River basin is now in a serious over loading state of eco-environments.Haihe River basins will not reach a good eco-environmental state and,at the same time,not reach a good social and economical state until 2033.②in 2033,when the eco-environments is in a loadable state,the population wil amout to 157.30 millions,6.30 millions more than the natural increasing population of 151 00 millions and the optimal proportion of water use will be 28%, 43%,18% and 11% in industry,agriculture,ecology and life,respectively.

     

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