戴昌军, 梁忠民, 栾承梅, 叶亚琦. 洪水频率分析中PDS模型研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2006, 17(1): 136-140.
引用本文: 戴昌军, 梁忠民, 栾承梅, 叶亚琦. 洪水频率分析中PDS模型研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2006, 17(1): 136-140.
DAI Chang-jun, LIANG Zhong-min, LUAN Cheng-mei, YE Ya-qi. Advance in flood frequency analysis for partial duration series[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2006, 17(1): 136-140.
Citation: DAI Chang-jun, LIANG Zhong-min, LUAN Cheng-mei, YE Ya-qi. Advance in flood frequency analysis for partial duration series[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2006, 17(1): 136-140.

洪水频率分析中PDS模型研究进展

Advance in flood frequency analysis for partial duration series

  • 摘要: 为了从实测洪水资料中获取更多的信息,提出PDS(Partial duration series)洪水频率分析模型并得到发展。介绍了PDS模型及其导出的AMS(Annual Maximal Series)模型的基本理论,综述了两种模型之间的比较研究。总结了PDS模型应用的关键技术,包括独立性判别、阈值的选取、超定量次数概率分布的选择。描述了PDS模型在区域洪水频率分析、PDS模型与贝叶斯理论结合研究的新进展,展望了PDS模型进一步研究的前景。

     

    Abstract: In this paper,the theory of the Partial duration series(PDS)mode is presented and developed to extracting more information from observed flood data.The PDS model and its derived annual maximum series(AMS)model are reviewed and compared. The Principles for applying the PDS model,such as the independence criteria,the threshold selection and determination of the probability distribution of the number of exceedance events,are summarized.Furthermore,the latest advances in regional flood frequency analysis and on coupling of Bayesian with PDS model were described. Finally,the perspectives of the PDS model are prospected.

     

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