张蔚, 严以新, 郑金海, 吴宏旭. 珠江三角洲年际潮差长期变化趋势[J]. 水科学进展, 2010, 21(1): 77-83.
引用本文: 张蔚, 严以新, 郑金海, 吴宏旭. 珠江三角洲年际潮差长期变化趋势[J]. 水科学进展, 2010, 21(1): 77-83.
ZHANG Wei, YAN Yi-xin, ZHENG Jin-hai, WU Hong-xu. Interannual tidal range trend in Pearl River Delta[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2010, 21(1): 77-83.
Citation: ZHANG Wei, YAN Yi-xin, ZHENG Jin-hai, WU Hong-xu. Interannual tidal range trend in Pearl River Delta[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2010, 21(1): 77-83.

珠江三角洲年际潮差长期变化趋势

Interannual tidal range trend in Pearl River Delta

  • 摘要: 对20世纪50年代以来珠江三角洲网河内17个主要控制水文站的年际潮差变化趋势进行了显著性检验和突变点分析.通过Trend Free Pre-Whitening方法削除了水文时间序列中的自相关成分,利用非参数的Mann-Kendall检验研究了珠江三角洲年均潮差的变化趋势,指出潮差在珠江三角洲的变化趋势存在着空间变异性.在网河内的中、上游河段,潮差呈现明显的增大趋势,且越往上游,潮差的增大趋势越为显著;而在下游的口门区,由于受到围垦等人类活动影响,大部分站点的潮差表现为显著的下降趋势.Pettitt检验的结果表明,珠江三角洲潮差发生突变的时间段主要在20世纪80年代,这基本与河网内大规模的无序采沙开始的时间是同步的,表明挖沙是引起珠江三角洲内潮差变异的主导因素.潮差显著增大的趋势表明航道网内潮流动力明显增强,这亦是近年来珠江三角洲咸潮频发的机理原因之一.

     

    Abstract: This paper analyzes the interannual tidal range trends and the abrupt change points of the 17 main hydrological stations in the Pearl River Delta since 1950s.Autocorrelation has been removed from the original sample using the Trend Free Pre-Whitening procedure before the non-parametric method Mann-Kendall test is applied.The results indicate that there is spatial variability of the annual tidal range in the Pearl River Delta.In the middle and upper reaches,the tidal ranges display significant increasing trend.The upper reach it goes,the more obvious the increasing trend is.While near the estuary,most stations show significant decreasing trend in the tidal range due to intensive human activities,such as land reclamations.The result of the Pettitt test indicates that the abrupt changes of most stations occurred in the 1980s,which is accordance with the period of large-scale sand excavation occurrences in the delta.This implies that sand excavation is the main factor leading to the tidal range variability.The increasing trend in the tidal range also indicates the increase of the tidal dynamics in the delta,which is also one of the reasons for the saline intrusion problem happening in the recent years.

     

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