朱元, 周全林. 长江三峡工程防洪效益风险分析研究[J]. 水科学进展, 1995, 6(1): 29-35.
引用本文: 朱元, 周全林. 长江三峡工程防洪效益风险分析研究[J]. 水科学进展, 1995, 6(1): 29-35.
Zhu Yuanshen, Zhou Quanlin. Risk Analysis of Flood Control Benefit of Three-Gorge Project[J]. Advances in Water Science, 1995, 6(1): 29-35.
Citation: Zhu Yuanshen, Zhou Quanlin. Risk Analysis of Flood Control Benefit of Three-Gorge Project[J]. Advances in Water Science, 1995, 6(1): 29-35.

长江三峡工程防洪效益风险分析研究

Risk Analysis of Flood Control Benefit of Three-Gorge Project

  • 摘要: 在传统防洪效益计算的数学模型基础上,综合分析了水文、水流、工程施工和运行管理等多种不确定性,建立了长江中游防洪系统防洪效益的风险分析模型。计算结果表明,防洪效益的分布合理地反映了各种不确定性因素的综合影响,采用不同风险对应的防洪效益较未考虑各风险因子的不确定性时的防洪效益更加科学,更加合理。

     

    Abstract: Based on conventional model of flood control benefit,several kinds of uncertainties,including hydrological,hydraulic,structural,managemental and operational uncertainty,are synthetically analyzed. A risk model of flood control benefit of Three-Gorge Project has been established. It is indicated that the probability distribution of the benefit represents more reasonably,considering the impact of various uncertainties.

     

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