朱元生生, 沈福新, 黄振平, 刘治中, 王道席. 长江防洪决策支持系统——防洪决策风险分析[J]. 水科学进展, 1996, 7(4): 295-304.
引用本文: 朱元生生, 沈福新, 黄振平, 刘治中, 王道席. 长江防洪决策支持系统——防洪决策风险分析[J]. 水科学进展, 1996, 7(4): 295-304.
Zhu Yuansheng, Shen Fuxin, Huang Zhenping, Liu Zhizhong, Huang Daoxi. Yangtze River Flood Control Decision Support System——Flood Control Decision Risk Analysis[J]. Advances in Water Science, 1996, 7(4): 295-304.
Citation: Zhu Yuansheng, Shen Fuxin, Huang Zhenping, Liu Zhizhong, Huang Daoxi. Yangtze River Flood Control Decision Support System——Flood Control Decision Risk Analysis[J]. Advances in Water Science, 1996, 7(4): 295-304.

长江防洪决策支持系统——防洪决策风险分析

Yangtze River Flood Control Decision Support System——Flood Control Decision Risk Analysis

  • 摘要: 针对长江中游防洪决策过程,筛选出几个主要的风险因子.考虑暴雨洪水历史资料,短期洪水位预报以及中长期雨洪预报三种不同信息条件,建立防洪决策风险分析模型,针对长江三峡至螺山河段防洪系统,是否启用分蓄洪区的各种防洪决策方案,给出决策风险的定量描述.

     

    Abstract: In this paper some main risk factors are sifted with in the flood control decision process for the middle reach of the Yangtze River. The risk analysis models are set up for flood control decision considering the following three kinds of information: historical data of rainfall and flood, short-term forecasting of water stage as well as mid-and-long term forecasting of rainfall and flood. In addition, the quantitative descriptions are given for various flood control plans of whether to use the flood diversion areas or flood storage areas in the flood control system of the Yangtze River reach between Three Gorges and Loushan.

     

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