刘丙军, 陈晓宏, 雷洪成, 陈文静. 流域水资源供需系统演化特征识别[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(3): 331-336.
引用本文: 刘丙军, 陈晓宏, 雷洪成, 陈文静. 流域水资源供需系统演化特征识别[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(3): 331-336.
LIU Bing-jun, CHEN Xiao-hong, LEI Hong-cheng, CHEN Wen-jing. Distinguishing of water resources supply and demand system evolution features[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(3): 331-336.
Citation: LIU Bing-jun, CHEN Xiao-hong, LEI Hong-cheng, CHEN Wen-jing. Distinguishing of water resources supply and demand system evolution features[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(3): 331-336.

流域水资源供需系统演化特征识别

Distinguishing of water resources supply and demand system evolution features

  • 摘要: 水资源的有限性和稀缺性必然导致水资源供需系统中资源、社会经济和生态环境目标相互制约、相互冲突。在系统识别水资源供需系统协同特征基础上,根据协同学支配原理,分别在水资源供需系统资源、社会经济和生态环境子系统中设置了序参量,并运用有序度、协调度等概念,构建了一种基于协同学原理的流域水资源供需系统演化特征识别模型,并将此模型运用于东江流域,揭示了该流域不同发展时期水资源供需系统的协同异化特征演化规律。结果表明,剧烈人类活动影响下,2000年左右东江流域水资源供、需关系发生明显转变,水资源供需系统逐渐向无序、混乱状态演进。

     

    Abstract: Shortage of water resources is likely to result in conflicts among the water resources supply and demand system the socio-economic development and the eco-environmental requirement.In this study,the principle of order is used to balance and coordinate the three conflict parties.This is done through the introduction of order parameters to the three parties.A system identification model is developed based on the concept of the degree of order and coordination.The results to the Dongjiang River Basin to reveal the evolution of the water resources supply and demand system.The results show that the water resource supply and demand of Dongjiang River Basin has evolved towards disorder and chaos state under the strong disturbance of human activies in 2000.

     

/

返回文章
返回