刘心愿, 郭生练, 李响, 李雨. 考虑水文预报误差的三峡水库防洪调度图[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(6): 771-779.
引用本文: 刘心愿, 郭生练, 李响, 李雨. 考虑水文预报误差的三峡水库防洪调度图[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(6): 771-779.
LIU Xin-yuan, GUO Sheng-lian, LI Xiang, LI Yu. Flood control operation chart for Three Gorges Reservoir considering errors in inflow forecasting[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(6): 771-779.
Citation: LIU Xin-yuan, GUO Sheng-lian, LI Xiang, LI Yu. Flood control operation chart for Three Gorges Reservoir considering errors in inflow forecasting[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(6): 771-779.

考虑水文预报误差的三峡水库防洪调度图

Flood control operation chart for Three Gorges Reservoir considering errors in inflow forecasting

  • 摘要: 分析三峡水库入库流量短期预报结果,采用非参数方法估算预报相对误差的概率密度函数。以防洪为目标,同时兼顾发电、通航等要求,建立了防洪调度模型,采用差分进化算法求解,得到了汛期防洪优化调度图。通过比较不考虑预报、现有预报方案、准确预报3种情况的调度结果,分析了水文预报误差对防洪调度的影响。结果表明,无论考虑预报与否,与现有设计方案相比,汛期防洪优化调度图的发电量都增加,弃水减少,削峰率有所提高;而考虑预报信息有助于调控洪水,提高预报精度有助于增加水库抵御大洪水风险的能力;基于模拟现行作业预报方案,汛期防洪优化调度图比设计调度方案发电量增加5.3%,弃水减少5.9%,削峰率提高1.7个百分点,防御1000年一遇设计洪水的能力大大提高。

     

    Abstract: The daily inflow forecast results of the Three Gorges reservoir (TGR)were analyzed,and the probability density functions of inflow forecasting relative errors with lead-times were estimated by using the nonparametric estimation.Considering the power generation and navigation,a flood control operation chart model was developed based on the inflow forecasting information.The proposed model was solved with a differential evolution algorithm.By comparing the results of different forecasting schemes,the impact of forecasting errors on flood control operation was analyzed.It is shown that the optimal reservoir flood control operation chart based on the current forecasting scheme can generate 5.3% extra hydropower energy,save 6.9% flood water resources,increase the flood peak clipping ratio by 1.7%,and the capacity to withstand the risk of 1000-year design flood can be also greatly increased.

     

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