魏凤英. 多步流量预测模型新方案的研究与应用[J]. 水科学进展, 2003, 14(5): 607-611.
引用本文: 魏凤英. 多步流量预测模型新方案的研究与应用[J]. 水科学进展, 2003, 14(5): 607-611.
WEI Feng-ying. New model for multi-step prediction and its application to flow prediction[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2003, 14(5): 607-611.
Citation: WEI Feng-ying. New model for multi-step prediction and its application to flow prediction[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2003, 14(5): 607-611.

多步流量预测模型新方案的研究与应用

New model for multi-step prediction and its application to flow prediction

  • 摘要: 在分析1951-2001年潼关、花园口、兰州水文站年最大流量的变化规律基础上,提出了一个建立多步预测模型的新方案,该预测模型具有可以直接作多步预测和对异常极值有较好预测技巧等特点。将该预测模型用于1995-2001年多步独立样本的预测试验,取得了较好的预测效果,利用这一预测模型对未来直至2005年的年最大流量变化趋势进行了预测。

     

    Abstract: Based on the analysis of annual maximum flows between 1951 and 2001 in Tongguan,Huayuankou and Lanzhou,a new model for the multi step prediction is proposed in the paper.The model is well available for continuous multi step pre diction and anomalous extreme values.The example,applying the model to the multi step prediction of independent sample during 1995-2001,results show that the tendency of variation for every year can be predicted skillfully by the model.The variation for the flow during 2002-2005 is also predicted.

     

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