宋晓猛, 张建云, 孔凡哲, 王国庆, 贺瑞敏, 朱奎. 北京地区降水极值时空演变特征[J]. 水科学进展, 2017, 28(2): 161-173. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.02.001
引用本文: 宋晓猛, 张建云, 孔凡哲, 王国庆, 贺瑞敏, 朱奎. 北京地区降水极值时空演变特征[J]. 水科学进展, 2017, 28(2): 161-173. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.02.001
SONG Xiaomeng, ZHANG Jianyun, KONG Fanzhe, WANG Guoqing, HE Ruimin, ZHU Kui. Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation extremes in Beijing[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2017, 28(2): 161-173. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.02.001
Citation: SONG Xiaomeng, ZHANG Jianyun, KONG Fanzhe, WANG Guoqing, HE Ruimin, ZHU Kui. Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation extremes in Beijing[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2017, 28(2): 161-173. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.02.001

北京地区降水极值时空演变特征

Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation extremes in Beijing

  • 摘要: 为了科学评估变化环境下城市地区降水结构变化和深入认识特大型城市降水极值演变特征,以北京市为例,采用《北京市暴雨图集》中6种历时(10 min、30 min、1 h、6 h、24 h和72 h)的年最大暴雨统计数据和北京地区45个雨量站点1960-2012年汛期(6-9月)逐日降水观测资料,分别选择年最大值法和百分位阈值法,基于暴雨图集中的6种历时暴雨的统计特征值和两种百分位阈值下(95%和99%)的3种极端降水指标(发生次数、降水量和降水贡献率)分析北京地区降水极值的时空变化特征。研究结果表明:① 北京地区降水极值的空间分布受地形特征和城市化发展等因素影响而呈现出从东向西递减的趋势,且形成了局部区域高值中心;② 近50年来北京地区极端降水发生频次、极端降水量和极端降水的贡献率均表现出显著的下降趋势,在95%(99%)阈值条件下极端降水发生次数、极端降水量和极端降水贡献率的下降速率分别为0.13次/10 a(0.04次/10 a)、11.59 mm/10a(5.28 mm/a)和2%/10 a(1%/10 a);③ 两个阶段(1960-1985年和1986-2012年)的城区与近郊的极端降水指标差异表现不同,1960-1985年在极端降水频次方面郊区占优,而极端降水量和贡献率则是城区较高,1986-2012年3个指标均表现为城区较高。

     

    Abstract: To achieve scientific evaluation and understanding the changes in precipitation pattern and the spatiotemporal variation in precipitation extremes for urban areas in a changing environment, we analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution and the change characteristics of the precipitation extremes in Beijing. The statistical results for the storm with different durations from the Heavy Rain Atlases in Beijing and the daily precipitation data (from June to September) from 45 rain-gauged stations over Beijing during 1960-2012 were used in this study. The annual maximum value method and the percentile threshold value method were selected to define the precipitation extremes, and six durations storm (e. g. 10 min, 30 min, 1 h, 6 h, 24 h, and 72 h) and three extreme precipitation indices (frequency, precipitation amount, and contribution ratio) under the two thresholds (95% and 99%). The results showed that: ① The spatial distribution of precipitation extremes in Beijing was affected by the topographic features and urbanization, with some high-value centers of extreme precipitation for these special areas (e. g. urban areas, the interface between the mountainous area and the plain areas), which was consistent with the annual precipitation; ② All the extreme precipitation indices have significant decreasing trends during 1960-2012, with a rate of 0.13/10 a (0.04/10 a) for the frequency of extreme precipitation events, 11.59 mm/10 a (5.28 mm/10 a) for the extreme precipitation amount, and 2%/10 a (1%/10 a) for the contribution ratio of extreme precipitation, respectively, under the 95th (99th) percentile threshold; ③ The changes in the two periods (1960-1985 and 1986-2012) between the urban and suburban areas were different due to the impact of urbanization on extreme precipitation. The frequency of extreme precipitation events in the suburban areas was higher than that of urban areas during the 1960-1985, but the other two indices in the suburban areas were lower than urban areas. However, all the three indices in the urban area were higher than that in suburban areas during the period of 1986-2012.

     

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