基于灾害损失的城市洪灾多尺度动态预警模式

Multiscale dynamic early warning model for urban flood disasters based on disaster losses

  • 摘要: 在极端暴雨洪涝事件频发背景下,提升城市暴雨洪涝预警的属性全面性和空间准确性,是降低城市洪灾风险的重要路径。目前多以灾害致灾因子作为洪灾预警指标,仅能反映出暴雨洪涝自身的危险程度,且预警空间尺度单一。本文从城市洪涝灾害预警的现实需求出发,考虑洪灾经济损失-受灾人口-交通损失多维损失属性和点(网格)-线(道路)-面(行政区)多尺度空间特征,建立城市洪涝多维灾情损失评估方法和多尺度损失预警体系,提出“洪涝模拟-损失评估-多尺度预警-实时更新”的城市洪涝动态预警模式。郑州市应用表明:从1年一遇至百年一遇连续重现期下损失呈现前期快速增加后期平稳的增长趋势;空间上损失空间分布不均匀特征显著;同一时刻不同尺度预警信息差异性显著,同一尺度不同时刻预警信息也存在不同。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of frequent extreme rainstorm and flood events, improving the attribute comprehensiveness and spatial accuracy of urban rainstorm and flood early warnings is a critical approach to reducing urban flood disaster risks. Current early warning methods mostly adopt disaster-causing factors as flood warning indicators, which can only reflect the inherent hazard level of rainstorm floods and apply a single spatial scale for early warning. Responding to the practical demands of urban flood disaster early warning, this paper establishes a multi-dimensional flood disaster loss assessment method and a multi-scale loss early warning system by incorporating multi-dimensional loss attributes including economic losses, affected population, and traffic losses, as well as multi-scale spatial characteristics covering point (grid), line (road), and area (administrative district). A dynamic urban flood early warning paradigm of “flood simulation - loss assessment - multi-scale early warning - real-time update” is further proposed. The application results in Zhengzhou City show that under continuous return periods from 1-year to 100-year, flood losses present a growth trend of rapid initial increase followed by gradual stabilization; the spatial distribution of losses is highly uneven; there are significant differences in early warning information across different scales at the same time and at different times for the same scale. This framework provides important support for strengthening urban flood disaster risk management and enhancing urban adaptive disaster response capacity.

     

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