基于社交媒体大数据的城市洪涝识别与模拟验证

Urban flood identification with simulation validation based on social media big data

  • 摘要: 传统的城市水文监测手段在极端洪涝条件下面临一定失效风险,亟需新型监测手段进行补充。本研究提出了一种基于社交媒体大数据的城市洪涝识别方法,采用爬虫技术(BeautifulSoup4)提取社交媒体大数据中的洪涝相关词条,结合BERT(Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers)+ CRF(Conditional Random Field)命名体识别技术提取洪涝积水点地理信息,以2021年7月20日郑州极端暴雨洪涝灾害为例,通过与调查积水点空间分布和城市洪涝数值模拟对比验证识别方法的准确性。结果表明:基于社交媒体大数据识别的积水点与调查积水点空间分布基本一致,空间重合率达89.4%,空间重合的识别积水点中,水深在30~<50 cm、50~<100 cm、100~<200 cm、200~<300 cm和≥300 cm的比例依次为49.6%、36.8%、8.2%、4.1%和1.3%;50年一遇和100年一遇设计降雨、2019年8月1日和2024年7月22日实测降雨情景模拟结果从空间趋势上体现了识别结果的合理性。基于社交媒体大数据的城市洪涝识别是极端条件下洪涝监测的一种重要补充,可作为城市洪涝数值模拟验证、洪涝灾害应急决策的重要支撑。

     

    Abstract: The insufficient reliability of conventional monitoring methods under extreme rainfall conditions has resulted in an urgent need for new monitoring methods This study proposes an urban flood identification method that uses crawler technology (BeautifulSoup4) to extract flood-related terms from social media big data. The geographic information of water accumulation points was identified by combining BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) and CRF (Conditional Random Field) named entity recognition technology. Considering the extreme rainstorm and flood disaster in Zhengzhou on July 20, 2021 as an example, the accuracy of the identification method was verified by comparing it with the spatial distribution of the investigated water accumulation points and the numerical simulation of urban flooding. Results showed that the spatial distribution of the water accumulation points identified based on social media big data was basically consistent with that of the investigated water accumulation points, with a spatial overlap rate of 89.4%. Among the identified water accumulation points with spatial overlap, the proportions of water depths(H) proportions of 30< H <50, 50< H <100, 100< H <200, 200< H <300and H≥ 300 cm were 49.6%, 36.8%, 8.2%, 4.1% and 1.3%, respectively. The simulation results of the 50-year and 100-year design rainfall scenarios, as well as the measured rainfall scenarios on August 1, 2019, and July 22, 2024, demonstrate the rationality of the identification results in terms of spatial trends. Urban flood monitoring inversion based on social media big data is an important supplement to flood monitoring under extreme conditions and can be used as a crucial data support for validating numerical simulations on urban floods and emergency decision-making during flood disasters

     

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