冲积河流平滩流量滞后响应前期影响权重优化

Optimum impact weights of previous conditions for delayed response of bank-full discharge in alluvial rivers

  • 摘要: 确定前期水沙条件影响权重是研究河道平滩流量滞后响应的难点问题。考虑前期水沙条件影响权重的复杂变化,对河道平滩流量提出建立前期水沙条件与影响权重的卷积模型,并为确定前期水沙条件影响权重给出一种简易的相关分析方法。对比现有河道平滩流量滞后响应模型的滑动平均、速率方程方法,均可视为卷积模型前期水沙条件影响权重为特定函数时的特例。选择黄河内蒙古河段三湖河口站为例,分别采用3种模型方法对平滩流量变化过程进行模拟。研究结果表明:效果从高到低依次为卷积模型、滑动平均、速率方程,相应确定性系数分别为0.906、0.903、0.879,Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别为0.906、0.899、0.874;比较3种模型方法前期水沙条件影响权重,变化差别较大,说明优化选择前期水沙条件影响权重有助于提高模拟效果;分析卷积模型方法优化确定的前期水沙条件影响权重变化规律,平滩流量综合受当年与前6~8 a水沙条件的影响较强,表现出复杂的“双重”影响。

     

    Abstract: How to determine the impact weights of the previous water and sediment conditions for the delayed response of bank-full discharge in alluvial river is a difficult question. Considering the complex variation in impact weights of previous water and sediment conditions, an improved convolution model for the previous water and sediment conditions and their impact weights is established for bank-full discharge, and a simple correlation analysis method for determining and optimizing the impact weights of previous water and sediment conditions is proposed. The former bank-full discharge delayed response model using moving average and rate equation methods are both unique impact weight cases of convolution model. Taking the Sanhuhekou station located in the Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River as a case study, the variation of bank-full discharge is simulated using different modes. The results indicate that the order of model effect from high to low is convolution model, moving average method, and rate equation method, the deterministic coefficients are 0.906, 0.903, and 0.879 respectively; the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients are 0.906, 0.899, and 0.874 respectively, caused by different impact weights of previous water and sediment conditions. So the model performance can be improved by selecting the impact weights of previous water and sediment conditions reliably. Analysis of the optimum impact weights of previous water and sediment conditions shows that, the bank-full discharge is influenced by the water and sediment conditions of current year and preceding 6—8 years, with a dual effect.

     

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