复杂水库群调蓄影响下的三峡运行期设计洪水及汛控水位

Design flood and flood control water level in Three Gorges Reservoir operation period under regulation impact of complex reservoir group

  • 摘要: 长江上游水库群的建成运行改变了三峡水库来水来沙条件,现有设计洪水及145 m汛限水位难以应对新时期防洪抗旱和水资源高效利用的需求;长江上游大型水库众多、暴雨洪水时空分布不均,现有地区组成法无法直接适用于复杂水库群运行期设计洪水计算。本文采用混合Copula函数构建联合分布,同时反映年最大洪水系列和典型年大洪水分布组成规律,基于最可能洪水地区组成法和最不利洪水地区组成法,分别推求三峡水库运行期设计洪水及汛控水位。结果表明:混合Copula函数能显著提高复杂水库群的洪水地区组成的可靠性与稳定性;受上游重点大型水库群调蓄影响,三峡水库运行期设计洪水削减了15%~20%;在确保防洪标准和防洪高水位不变的前提下,经调洪演算求得汛控水位为155.5 m。该研究可为三峡调度规程修订和长江流域水工程联合运用提供重要的理论依据和技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: The construction and operation of the cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yangtze River have significantly altered inflow and sedimentation of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), which makes the original design floods and flood limit water level (145 m) fail to meet the updated situation. Since the spatiotemporal distribution of storm-flood is uneven owing to many large-scale reservoirs in the Upper Yangtze River, the current flood regional composition methods are unable to directly derive the design flood hydrograph in such complex cascade reservoir system. The mixture copula function was adapted to construct joint distribution of annual maximum flood data series and typical flood events simultaneously, the most likely and unfavorable flood regional composition methods were modified to estimate design floods in the TGR operation period, and the corresponding flood control water level were derived. The results show that the mixture copula function can improve the practicality and stability of the flood regional composition methods in complex cascade reservoir system; due to the regulation of upstream reservoirs, the TGR design floods have been reduced about 15%—20%; under the conditions of unchanged flood prevention standards and flood protection high water level, the corresponding flood control water level (155.5 m) is estimated through flood routing calculation. This research will provide theoretical and technical support for the modification of TGR regulation rules and joint operation of hydraulic projects in the Upper Yangtze River.

     

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