变化环境下长三角地区极端降水非平稳性及其时空分异特征

Spatial distribution patterns of non-stationary extreme precipitation under changing environment in the Yangtze River Delta region

  • 摘要: 在当前复杂的变化环境下,掌握极端降水的非平稳性演化规律已成为区域防洪减灾的迫切需求。本研究以长三角地区为例,基于1961—2021年格点化逐日降水数据集和多种气候因子资料,采用主成分分析(PCA)与极值分布理论(GEV)研究了极端降水对城市化的响应。结果表明:①长三角地区的极端降水在城市化快速发展阶段雨量更高,短历时极端降水空间分布更不均匀;②极端降水在大部分区域呈现增长趋势,城市化进程较快的区域更为显著;③基于季风因子的GEV-PCA模型在多数区域表现最优,在城市扩张前后的分布发生变化;④随重现期增加,耦合不透水率的GEV-PCA-U模型与GEV-PCA模型的极端降水差距增大,月际间的差距缩小。建议结合极端降水非平稳特性及其对大气环流因子和城市化的响应特征,有针对性地加强不同区域的防洪排涝工作。

     

    Abstract: In the current complex changing environment, understanding the non-stationary characteristics of extreme precipitation is increasingly critical for effective flood control and disaster risk management at regional scale. This study examines the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region using gridded daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2021, along with climate factors. Principal component analysis (PCA) and the generalized extreme value distribution theory (GEV) are employed to analyze how extreme precipitation responds to urbanization. The results show that: ① During periods of rapid urbanization, extreme precipitation in the YRD region intensifies, with short-duration events becoming increasingly uneven in spatial distribution. ② A general upward trend of extreme precipitation is observed across most areas, with more pronounced increases in rapidly urbanizing regions. ③ The monsoon-informed GEV-PCA model performs better in most areas, effectively capturing distributional shifts associated with urban expansion. ④ As return periods increase, the discrepancy in extreme precipitation between the baseline GEV-PCA model and the GEV-PCA-U model (which incorporates impervious surface data) widens, while monthly variability diminishes. These findings highlight that the extreme precipitation is nonstationary and shaped by both atmospheric circulation and urbanization. Regional strategies for flood management and drainage planning should be developed accordingly.

     

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