太湖平原水网区雨洪响应特征及其影响因素

Changes of rainfall-flood response characteristics and its influencing factor over the Taihu river network plain region

  • 摘要: 为探究城市化平原水网地区雨洪响应规律及其主要影响因素,以太湖流域的武澄锡虞区为例,基于不同类型城市水网单元水文观测试验,建立了4种雨洪响应特征指标,并对比分析了典型城市水网单元的雨洪响应差异,运用可解释机器学习方法探讨了多种因素的影响作用。结果表明:低河流密度、高不透水面率且处于城市防洪包围工程外的类型区在各等级降雨中具有最高的洪峰水位,同时其雨洪响应过程也最为剧烈;洪水的峰值、量级与动态变化等特征主要受降雨特性和河道前期条件控制,不透水面率对涨水速率存在较大的正向影响,而河网水面率、干流面积长度比等水系特性则在削峰滞洪方面发挥着重要作用。研究结果有助于增进对平原水网地区雨洪响应特征及其影响机理的科学认识,将为防洪减灾与水系保护工作提供依据。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the patterns of rainfall-flood response and identify their key drivers in urbanized river network plain regions, this study focuses on the Wuchengxiyu area within the Taihu Lake basin. Based on hydrological observations from diverse urban river network units, four rainfall-flood response characteristic indices were established and a comparative analysis was then performed to discern variations in these responses across typical urban river network units, utilizing interpretable machine learning to probe into the multifactorial influences at play. The results reveal that regions characterized by sparse river networks, a high proportion of impervious surfaces, and being situated beyond urban flood control embankment systems experience the highest peak flood water levels for every rainfall intensity, along with the most intense rainfall-flood response processes, and the magnitude, scale, and dynamic characteristics of flood peaks are primarily controlled by rainfall features and pre-event river channel conditions. The impervious surface ratio significantly and positively impacts the rate at which floodwaters rise, while the ratio of the water surface area and the area-length ratio of the mainstream are pivotal in mitigating flood peaks and regulating flood flows. These findings contribute to a deeper scientific understanding of rainfall-flood response characteristics and their underlying mechanisms in plain river network regions, thus laying a solid foundation for flood risk mitigation and river system conservation.

     

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