中国外流流域实际蒸散发变化趋势及多源蒸散产品评估

Spatiotemporal trends of actual evapotranspiration and evaluation of multi-source evapotranspiration products in China's exorheic basins

  • 摘要: 实际蒸散发的变化会影响水资源的可利用性和生态系统健康,准确估算实际蒸散发并掌握其变化趋势,不仅是陆地水循环研究长期面临的挑战,也是应对全球变化的核心议题之一。本文针对中国八大外流流域,利用72个水文站点观测数据,借助4种主流降水数据集,基于GRACE卫星的陆地水储量变化数据和水量平衡法计算流域实际蒸散发,评估了包括GLDAS_NOAH、GLDAS_CLSM、GLDAS_VIC、ERA5、MERRA2、GLEAM、PML_V2和FLUXCOM在内的8种主流的蒸散发估算产品在中国八大外流流域内的适用性。结果表明:八大流域2003—2020年的年均实际蒸散发量在415.1~1001.4 mm之间,平均值为626.6 mm,由西北至东南递增,不确定性较小,平均值为46.7 mm;蒸散发产品表现地区差异显著,北方流域优于南方;八大流域整体最佳的陆面模式产品为GLDAS_NOAH、再分析产品为ERA5、遥感微气象产品为GLEAM,推荐的产品松花江为MERRA2、辽河和淮河为GLDAS_CLSM、海河为GLDAS_NOAH、黄河为ERA5、长江及东南诸河和珠江为GLEAM;2003—2020年的年均实际蒸散发量以5.8 mm/a速度增加,松辽、海河北部、东南诸河、珠江西部和长江上游上升趋势显著,陆面模式的选择对产品的蒸散发变化趋势结果影响显著。

     

    Abstract: Changes in actual evapotranspiration (ETa) affect the availability of water resources and the sustainability of ecosystems. Accurately estimating ETa and understanding its trends remain a long-standing challenge. Compared to ground-based evapotranspiration (ET) and thermal remote sensing, combining GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data with the water balance equation provides a robust method to estimate long-term and basin-scale ET. Combined with streamflow observations from 72 hydrological stations, and four precipitation datasets, we calculated basin-scale ETa via the water balance method. We evaluated eight mainstream ET products—GLDAS_NOAH, GLDAS_CLSM, GLDAS_VIC, ERA5, MERRA2, GLEAM, PML_V2, and FLUXCOM—across these basins. Results showed that annual mean ETa from 2003 to 2020 ranged between 415.1 mm and 1001.4 mm, increasing from northwest to southeast, with an average of 626.6 mm and low uncertainty (mean: 46.7 mm). ET product performance varied regionally, with relatively higher accuracy in northern part of China. The optimal land-surface-model-based product was GLDAS_NOAH, reanalysis product was ERA5, and remote sensing meteorological product was GLEAM. Specific recommendations included MERRA2 for the Songhuajiang River, GLDAS_CLSM for the Liaohe River and Huaihe River, GLDAS_NOAH for the Haihe River, ERA5 for the Yellow River, and GLEAM for the Yangtze River, Southeast Rivers, and Pearl River. From 2003 to 2020, ETa increased at a rate of 5.8 mm/a, with significant upward trends in the Song-Liao River, Northern Haihe River, Southeast Rivers, Western Pearl River, and Upper Yangtze River. Land surface model selection critically influenced trend outcomes.

     

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