变化环境下骤发干旱的径流表征方法

A new approach to manifesting flash drought by streamflow under a changing environment

  • 摘要: 现有骤发干旱的研究多从气象或农业干旱角度开展,从地表径流或基流等水文干旱角度开展的相关研究则较为有限。针对上述问题,结合游程理论和阈值法构建能够兼顾径流快速衰减和水量亏缺情况的骤发干旱评估方法,进一步应用数字滤波法从径流过程中分离出基流,开展针对基流的骤发干旱识别,补充和丰富现有骤旱研究方法,以赣江流域为对象开展实例研究。结果表明:赣江流域1981—2020年基于径流和基流的骤旱事件平均历时分别为8.40和9.92个候,平均发展速度分别为20.15和24.40%/候;通过关键水文气象要素的验证可以发现,基于径流的骤旱识别方法在捕获骤旱从土壤含水量传递到流域径流过程的初始阶段时更敏感,而基于基流的骤旱识别方法在评估流域水循环中骤旱是否完全消退时更可靠。

     

    Abstract: Most existing studies on flash droughts have been conducted from the perspective of meteorological or agricultural droughts. In contrast, research from a hydrological drought perspective, such as research based on streamflow or base flow deficits, remains limited. To address this gap, a flash drought assessment method that accounts for the rapid development characteristics and water deficit conditions of streamflow was established on the basis of run theory and the threshold level method. Then, a digital filtering method was introduced for base flow separation to support the identification of flash droughts in base flow processes, thus complementing existing flash drought identification methods. The Ganjiang River basin was selected as a case study area to evaluate the proposed method. The results indicated that the average durations and onset rates of flash drought events identified from the streamflow and base flow series in the Ganjiang River basin from 1981 to 2020 were 8.40 and 9.92 pentads and 20.15 and 24.40%/pentad, respectively. Validation of the changes in key hydro-meteorological variables suggested that flash droughts characterized on the basis of streamflow performed better in capturing the initial stage of soil moisture flash drought transmission into the watershed streamflow process, whereas the base flow characterization method for flash droughts was more reliable for determining whether a flash drought event had been completely terminated within the basin water cycle process.

     

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