极端枯水年黄河流域水资源系统韧性调控

Research on resilience regulation of water resource systems in the Yellow River basin under during extreme drought years

  • 摘要: 变化环境下缺水流域正面临日益严峻的水资源供需矛盾,极端枯水年水资源韧性调控方法和技术亟需创新和发展。本文以水资源系统韧性提升为核心,考虑水资源系统的鲁棒性、抵抗性、恢复性能力,建立流域水资源系统韧性水平评价方法,提出极端枯水年黄河流域水库群年际补水增供、地下水弹性开采增供和东中线置换增供等多水源挖潜措施和阈值。以流域水资源系统韧性最大为目标,以流域生活、生产和生态三生底线用水、断面下泄水量和多水源挖潜为约束,建立黄河流域水资源系统韧性调控模型,分析不同调控措施组合对水资源系统韧性的影响,提出增供措施投入策略及优化河流生态和经济社会用水配置关系,提升黄河流域应对极端枯水年的水安全保障能力。研究结果表明:2022年黄河流域现状用水遭遇2002年极端枯水,在不采取措施时水资源系统功能将遭到严重破坏;运用流域分层需水确定的底线用水,提出流域水资源系统韧性调控临界阈值为0.46,韧性调控的河道内生态用水适宜占比为21%~26%;极端枯水年水资源系统韧性调控策略包括南水北调东中线置换增供、地下水弹性开采增供、水库群年际补水增供等。

     

    Abstract: Under changing environmental conditions, water-scarce basins are facing increasingly severe conflicts between water supply and demand. Therefore, there is an urgent need to innovate and develop methods and technologies to regulate water resource resilience during extreme drought years. This study focuses on enhancing the resilience of water resource systems. An evaluation method for the resilience of basin water resource systems has been established by considering their robustness, resistance, and recovery capacities. Multi-source water potential tapping measures and thresholds have been proposed for the Yellow River basin during extreme drought years, including reservoir group interannual water replenishment, flexible groundwater extraction, and water diversion along the Eastern and Middle Routes of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project for enhanced supply. With the objective of maximizing basin water resource system resilience and the constraints of basin production-living-ecological baseline water demand, river discharge requirements, and multi-source water potential tapping limitations, a resilience regulation model for water resource systems in the Yellow River basin have been developed. The effects of different combinations of measures on system resilience have been analyzed to propose investment strategies for enhancement measures, and optimize the allocation relationship between ecological and socioeconomic water uses. Therefore, water security is guaranteed during extreme droughts. These findings indicate that, under the 2002 extreme drought scenario with current water use practices in 2022, the functions of water resource systems would be severely damaged without interventions. The baseline water demands are determined using the basin water demand hierarchy. The critical threshold for resilience regulation has been identified as 0.46, with the optimal proportion of instream ecological water use ranging between 21%—26%. Resilience regulation strategies during extreme drought years involve the water diversion of the Eastern and Middle Routes of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, flexible groundwater extraction, and reservoir group interannual water replenishment to enhance supply.

     

/

返回文章
返回